A flurry of rebar market news was announced on Monday, starting with Chicago shredded scrap posting final at $430/ton, up $50/ton from January and a total of *$70/ton since the end of 2024 (*correction from the $80/ton previously stated). An increase was expected, but the degree to which the increase posted caught many by surprise. Difficult weather conditions affected collections in January, coupled with higher demand for scrap from the mills in anticipation of robust order books stemming from pending tariffs, leading to the large jump in price.
The tariff rollercoaster took a sharp turn over the weekend with Trump focusing his energy on revisiting the 232 tariffs. On Monday the administration announced it was closing all exceptions, exemptions, carve-outs, and quotas to the 232, and 25% would apply to all imports. This could potentially affect countries such as Brazil, Spain, Ukraine, Greece, and Bulgaria, as well as NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico. The details of the implementation as well as the timeline are still being verified; however, indications are the changes may be in place March 4th, which would coincide with his extension on tariffs for all products from Mexico and Canada. Further, it is unclear if changes extend to the countries that were already being penalized the full 25%, such as Turkey, Algeria, and Egypt. More details will undoubtedly follow in the days to come.
The last major development of the day was a leading manufacturer of rebar announcing a $40/ton hike on rebar pricing effective on new orders. The size of the bump was surprising considering a smaller $30/ton increase was implemented a month ago. However, given the developments of the day, it is highly likely that all the mills will follow with versions of their own increases shortly. We will continue to monitor these and other developments affecting the rebar market and report as they develop.