April 1st – Rebar Market Update
As the second quarter of 2026 begins, the rebar market remains healthy. Demand continues to be strong in the market, with many reporting solid backlogs to start the construction season. The supply picture continues to improve as imports are starting to emerge that were purchased in the fall of last season and additional capacities come online. Pricing remains high relative to history, but the market demand has been solid enough to absorb most of the increase. Buyers are anxiously looking ahead to determine the direction the market will head for the balance of the year in the face of the larger economic and geopolitical landscape the country is facing.
The domestic mills remain “full” to start the second quarter. They successfully navigated the slower Q1 season without having to reduce prices; however, the last $30/ton increase from February continues to face challenges to “stick” fully in many regions. Any concessions the mills may offer are being more than offset by rising logistics costs due to higher fuel prices and a shortage of drivers. Pricing to the end market remains high to start Q2. The spread between finished pricing and raw materials remains at or near an all-time high as a testimony to how solid demand remains for domestic products. Mills eagerly await an expected strong uptick in demand in the construction months ahead to continue to drive prices and maintain strong backlogs. Mill lead times have reduced to a more manageable level to start April.
On the import front, cargos continue to arrive that were booked late last season. They currently provide pricing value compared to the domestic offerings; however, the tons arriving are limited, and future tons are questionable. New activity/bookings on the import market have come to a halt since the escalation in Iran. The increase in fuel prices and the disruption with the shipping lanes have driven average ocean freight rates $40-$60/ton higher globally. That increase is too much for the US market to accept, and foreign mills have no room to lower pricing to help offset it. The result is basically zero concluded new shipments since the conflict began. Until it is resolved and freight rates go lower, do not expect additional relief from import material, which is limiting the perceived availability of the material that is on the water. Expect that import will be a lessening factor on the rebar market if the tensions continue in the Middle East.
On the scrap front, pricing looks to have peaked and is now expected to come off. With the improved overall weather conditions heading into the spring, collections are improving and supply is increasing. Mills are quick to try and push down pricing that was driven up in the winter months. Most expect that there will be gradual decline in scrap and that product demand is too good to merit a collapse. The early prediction for April is a decline of $10-20/ton. It is doubtful that mills will be pressured by such a decline, as they did not follow the increases fully on the way up. Scrap is expected to post final early next week, and we will report it accordingly.
In the meantime, have a great start to April!
