Comments Off on Scrap Update and Mill Announcement
On Friday Chicago shredded scrap posted the final for January at $420/ton, up $30/ton from December. This was on the higher side of expectation and follows a $20/ton bump the prior month. The reason for the bump was solid demand from the mills coupled with tight supply due to limited collections in the winter season. It is not that uncommon for scrap pricing to rally during the winter months. It is the size of the rallies and the durations that vary.
A leading mill wasted little time reacting to the scrap increase and announced Friday evening a $30/ton price increase nationwide on all new orders. It is expected that other mills will follow right away next week with versions of their own announcements. The increase will likely “stick” in many places and regions where inventory remains tight and buyers currently have low inventory and need product. However, this increase may also cause buyers to give pause and shop harder before “loading up for the season,” as pricing will again be very near historical highs, and at this time of season, much of the country is in winter. Buyers have time to wait a bit before the weather improves. A domestic move creates a better value proposition for import and likely will encourage additional supply. We will continue to keep you posted on how the market reacts to these latest changes.
As 2025 draws to a close, it has been another year of “anything but normal” in the rebar market. The year started with lackluster demand in rebar that muted a 3-figure scrap run-up and a proclamation to tighten the Section 232s in the first quarter that had other steel products, non-rebar, increasing wildly. Scrap rose almost $100/ton to start the year, yet announced increases on rebar only totaled $70/ton, and a good share of that failed to “stick.” By April, the rebar pricing was already beginning to retreat and buck the overall steel trend. In June, when Trump doubled steel tariffs to 50%, the rebar market was slow to react. Having felt lagging demand for rebar, a relatively low supply of imports in the pipeline, and ample “new” domestic capacity coming online, buyers gave little concern that the June tariff change would have a meaningful impact on the rebar market. Those assumptions proved wrong in the second half of 2025. Demand gained strength throughout the balance of the year. The lack of import due to tariffs caused immediate stock shortages in several regions, and the new domestic capacity failed to come online as expected, further reducing supply. The rebar market tightened in the second half of 2025, with price increases announced in July and November of $30/ton each. While the market is starting to show signs of normalizing, we are ending the year nearly 20% higher in price than we started and in a much different spot than expected even halfway through this past year… anything but normal!!!
As we start 2026, supply remains very tight, especially on the eastern half of the country. Most will agree that the overall supply has improved in the last 60 days of 2025; however, there remains some tightness in key items and key locations. Expect the new capacities in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Arizona to continue to supply the market with more tons each month moving forward. Their start-ups have had challenges, but all will contribute meaningful tons in the year ahead. In addition, imports have found traction with the higher prices and will help bolster supply beginning in the late 1st quarter. Demand is strong on rebar, with most fabricators more bullish to start 2026 than they were to begin 2025. While the demand is likely not strong enough to trigger another run on supply, it is strong enough to keep pricing in check, assuming no unforeseen future disruption in supply.
On the scrap front to begin the year, many expect a modest bump to start the year, maybe $10-20/ton. Historically, winter brought a surge in pricing on scrap due to difficult collections. However, mills are not running at full capacity right now and can afford to delay their buys and curtail their demand. The $20/ton bump last month may be followed by a similar one for January, but few expect a large run-up into 2026 without any notable external pressures coming into play. The conservative outlook in scrap will likely not push to drive significant price increases moving forward.
On the import front, cargos have been finding traction, but the interest is limited to buyers covering themselves on supply having been cut short in 2025 or buyers protecting themselves from future increases. The current pricing under the high tariffs provides little financial incentive against domestic numbers. Therefore, without a move from domestic mills, expect imports to be available, but volumes will remain limited.
On a final note, we want to wish our customers, service partners, vendors, and employees the safest, happiest, and very best wishes in the coming year! Happy New Year and welcome 2026!!
Comments Off on December Scrap Finalizes – Up $20/ton
December Scrap posted final this morning at $390/TON, UP $20/TON from November. The increase was on the higher end of what was expected thanks in part to solid demand for raw materials and lighter collections due to weather. Most expect the mills to absorb this price increase, as demand is starting to wane with the winter months, and mills have already captured more than that amount with last month’s price bump of $30/ton. In addition, the supply is showing signs of easing on some items and in some regions. Import offers of additional supply are starting to appear. As such, most expect mills to view this scrap increase as a way to solidify current pricing to close the year. Any change in the supply or demand picture, however, and mills will waste little time trying to put through further increases.
We will continue to keep you posted on developments in the market.
As everyone comes back from a long holiday weekend to close the month of November, tight supply still grips the rebar market to start December. The degree of tightness varies by region, but in general the $30/ton that was announced last month has “stuck,” as buyers currently have little option but to pay the higher prices if they need rebar promptly. Most are keeping lighter inventories, sensing that once the supply situation improves, there may be downward pressure on pricing. The biggest question buyers continue to ask is when will supply improve? Relief from the tight supply will only come from additional capacity entering the market from new domestic mills, an increase in supply from foreign mills, or a seasonal slowdown in demand for rebar. As evidenced by the winter blast felt last week, the third scenario may have already started!!!
On the domestic front, mills remain fully booked to start December. Very few domestic mills have any openings in December’s rollings, and some mills even report being out until as late as February 2026. Mills continue to be conservative when allocating their tons as to not over-commit what they are able to produce. The tightest regions remain the East and the Midwest, with the South and Florida not too far behind. The new start-up mills are beginning to show meaningful supply to the market, which is expected to continue to improve supply to the market in general. While none of the 3 new mills are near full capacity yet, all are showing monthly gains that are beginning to relieve the tightness, a trend that should continue.
On the import side, new offers have emerged primarily from Asian sources. These offers offer a small price value to current domestic pricing; however, to those who are not being adequately supported by the domestic mills, the offers provide a viable supply option heading into the new year. Very few imports are expected into the US for the balance of 2026; however, bookings have increased for Q1, and that supply is expected to be somewhat meaningful in the market, especially along the coasts. Current offers today are not likely to hit the states for at least 4 months and potentially even longer with trans-Pacific import shipments, so the supply relief is not expected for a while.
On the scrap front, an expected price bump for December scrap seems to have become more muted. Experts are now predicting sideways to maybe $10/ton up. Mills’ demand for scrap seems to have stalled somewhat, and current scrap dealers seem to have an adequate supply to meet the demand. While scrap is typically tough to predict this time of year and can change on a dime (or with a snowstorm), most feel it will have little impact on the rebar market this month. Scrap will post the final late this week or early next, at which time we will let you know.
In the meantime, have a great start to the final month of 2025!
Friday night, a major rebar manufacturer announced a $30/ton increase. Other mills have wasted little time to follow that move with increases of their own. The move was undoubtedly a reaction to continued tight supply and not being able to keep up with customer demand. Despite a slower upcoming seasonal demand and sideways scrap pricing in November, mills feel the market is strong enough to support the increase. Currently, there is not a lot of competition to suggest otherwise. The increase affects all new orders.
We will continue to keep you posted on market developments.
Scrap settled this month sideways at $370/ton (Chicago Shredded Index). This is unchanged from the previous month and was widely expected. The non-change will do little to impact pricing changes with the domestic mills. The market sentiment continues to be dominated by supply issues with raw material cost taking a backseat.
We will continue to keep you posted with events in the market.
