December Market Recap
As everyone comes back from a long holiday weekend to close the month of November, tight supply still grips the rebar market to start December. The degree of tightness varies by region, but in general the $30/ton that was announced last month has “stuck,” as buyers currently have little option but to pay the higher prices if they need rebar promptly. Most are keeping lighter inventories, sensing that once the supply situation improves, there may be downward pressure on pricing. The biggest question buyers continue to ask is when will supply improve? Relief from the tight supply will only come from additional capacity entering the market from new domestic mills, an increase in supply from foreign mills, or a seasonal slowdown in demand for rebar. As evidenced by the winter blast felt last week, the third scenario may have already started!!!
On the domestic front, mills remain fully booked to start December. Very few domestic mills have any openings in December’s rollings, and some mills even report being out until as late as February 2026. Mills continue to be conservative when allocating their tons as to not over-commit what they are able to produce. The tightest regions remain the East and the Midwest, with the South and Florida not too far behind. The new start-up mills are beginning to show meaningful supply to the market, which is expected to continue to improve supply to the market in general. While none of the 3 new mills are near full capacity yet, all are showing monthly gains that are beginning to relieve the tightness, a trend that should continue.
On the import side, new offers have emerged primarily from Asian sources. These offers offer a small price value to current domestic pricing; however, to those who are not being adequately supported by the domestic mills, the offers provide a viable supply option heading into the new year. Very few imports are expected into the US for the balance of 2026; however, bookings have increased for Q1, and that supply is expected to be somewhat meaningful in the market, especially along the coasts. Current offers today are not likely to hit the states for at least 4 months and potentially even longer with trans-Pacific import shipments, so the supply relief is not expected for a while.
On the scrap front, an expected price bump for December scrap seems to have become more muted. Experts are now predicting sideways to maybe $10/ton up. Mills’ demand for scrap seems to have stalled somewhat, and current scrap dealers seem to have an adequate supply to meet the demand. While scrap is typically tough to predict this time of year and can change on a dime (or with a snowstorm), most feel it will have little impact on the rebar market this month. Scrap will post the final late this week or early next, at which time we will let you know.
In the meantime, have a great start to the final month of 2025!
