October Month End Rebar Notes
Like the holiday being celebrated today… The rebar market is experiencing its share of spooky supply situations. Tight supply continues to be the discussion as October draws to a close. For the past several months, mills have failed to close the gap in supplying all the rebar that the market is currently demanding. The worst markets with the tightest supply are the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern markets. The Southeast and Florida are also very tight and not far behind. While the West is still tight, it does not have the same degree of supply concerns as the rest of the country. Relief is in sight, however, as we roll the calendar forward to November. November typically begins a period of slowdown in demand to close the year. The Thanksgiving holiday week, coupled with seasonal weather trends in a lot of the country, typically cuts demand at the end of the year and should allow mills to catch up. Not surprisingly, mills that are sold out in November will currently accept orders for December.
Import has also started to gain traction this month. The pricing on import does not represent a value to current domestic pricing as much as it does “guaranteed supply,” which has become more desirable to buyers who have been limited in what they can buy domestically in the last couple of months and cycles. Buyers still are cautious on the import, as buys today would not arrive until February & March, and with no value on the price, if the supply picture does improve domestically, as expected, stockists may find themselves competing at the same price level with a lesser-desired import to a more valuable domestic product. As such, import is expected to be basically nonexistent through the balance of the year; however, a couple of cargos have been rumored to be booked to start 2026.
Scrap has trended sideways through the month after falling $10/ton last month. No real change is expected for this month. Given the tight supply, producers have been able to keep the modest reduction in their pocket. Looking forward, with limited demand in most other steel products besides rebar, the raw materials market is expected to remain at bay for the foreseeable future. Final numbers will post next week, and we will update accordingly.
Have a safe and happy Halloween and a “spooktacular” weekend ahead!
