June Month End Rebar Comments
With the start of the 2nd half of 2026, domestic mills are reporting good business, strong shipments, solid backlogs, and impressive profitability spreads in their earnings. With very little import to contend with and aided by the tariffs on the import that is arriving, domestic mills have been successful in filling their rollings at prices that have historically high spreads over their raw material and input costs. The firmest markets remain out West and, in the Midwest, while the South, Southwest, and Northeast face slightly more headwinds. There is very little available stock on hand in all regions, but most mills have roll cycles within a matter of weeks versus the month-plus lead times rumored in other non-rebar product lines. Domestics expect the good business to continue into the second half of the year but are wary of potential economic factors and additional capacity additions that could disrupt the product pricing.
On the import front, there has been very little new activity in the last month in imported rebar. Foreign mills continue to struggle under the pressure of a 50% duty and high ocean freights. The only mills trying to entertain the US market are the SE Asian mills, and their lead times are that much longer given their proximity to the US. Several cargos booked earlier in the year are taking nearly 6 months to arrive to the US port of entry, creating additional market pricing risks for a potential buyer. These factors continue to make imports a limiting factor and less relevant in the rebar market.
Scrap continues to remain steady, with most market participants expecting another sideways move for July, similar to last month. Lack of export demand for US scrap limits overall scrap demand, and supply flows continue to be strong for the scrap dealers. The stalemate this creates causes very little expected movement when scrap posts this month and will give mills very little reason to react accordingly. We will report when the scrap finalizes next week.
In the meantime, we want to wish all our vendors, customers, friends, and family alike a very safe & happy 250th 4th of July holiday celebration this weekend!!
