Month End Market Update
As the month and the 3rd quarter draw to a close, the rebar market continues to show signs of strength. Prices remain firm as supply concerns on certain items and certain regions struggle to catch up. Imports continue to be nonexistent, causing domestic mills to fill the void, which certain regions are faring better than others. The result is surprising strength in the market as we charge into the final quarter of the 2026 year.
Domestic mills report being full throughout the country. Certain regions continue to remain tighter than others, with the West and upper Midwest still being the tightest. As the cold season draws near, the Midwest is expected to catch up sooner versus later. Out West, production issues in several mills continue to hinder the supply. Strong demand heading into the final quarter against limited supply is continuing the tightness out West. The other regions of the country, while not as tight still as the Midwest and West, did seem to strengthen in September, especially in certain items. Mills have little excess stock, and buyers likely will need the seasonal slow-down expected towards the year end to see some extra availability. Still, customers must continue to navigate a tight supply for the next several weeks, as October is expected to show continued strength.
On the import side, relevant import offers are in short supply. A spike in fuel costs in September only pushed ocean freight even higher, making numbers even less attractive. Domestic mills have yet to raise prices, so high import material with long lead times heading into the holiday season seems to be too much to garner attention. Imports must continue to sit on the sidelines and wait for an opportunity to play in the US market.
Scrap is expected to bump in October, largely because of higher fuel costs driving higher collection costs. Scrap dealers are very bullish on their higher ask prices from the mills, expecting mills to have to concede and pay it in today’s environment. Most expect October scrap to finalize $20/ton higher than September, and rumors will circle about a potential bump. Whether mills will absorb a potential scrap bump or try to push it on to customers remains to be seen. Retaining margin is a strong consideration for mills; however, they are well aware that the slowest months are ahead and imports are waiting to become competitive again. Final scrap numbers should post early next week, and we will keep you posted.
In the meantime, have a great start to the final quarter of 2026!
