Rebar Market Update
The rebar market shows signs of strength heading into the month of May, following a similar trend to most steel products and the entire steel sector. Pricing in the rebar market has been pressured upward by a $50/ton increase announced out West 2 weeks ago. In addition, the freight market continues to be stubbornly tight due to limited drivers and high fuel prices. Other similar steel product prices are also on the rise, such as merchant and rod prices. These situations are putting pressure throughout the country on rebar pricing. Published rebar price increases were limited to the West because of supply issues for the mills that dominate in that region. East of the Rockies, rebar supply is improved, with added capacity in the market starting to ease supply concerns. In addition, imports affect the eastern side of the country to a greater extent than the west, further aiding the supply situation. Most agree that the market will remain firm through Q2 and possibly beyond with a growing bullish sentiment.
Domestic mills continue to be full and able to fill their rollings. Out West, there have been some production hiccups that have really tightened supply and caused pricing to rebound from earlier year lows with the recent price announcements. Most are reporting longer lead times and supply holes in certain items. Today marks the first day of the increase in effect, so the market eagerly waits to see if and when the full $50/ton is absorbed. In the Eastern half of the country, supply is much improved from several months ago, with both Hybar and Lexington now contributing meaningful tons to the market on a consistent basis along with imports coming in that were placed late last year. Lead times have improved. While the market is far from an oversupply in the east, demand and supply seem to be better balanced currently.
On the import front, the effects of the conflict in Iran continue to hurt global ocean freights and damage import opportunities. The high price of fuel is driving up vessel costs, and foreign mills struggle to compete in the US with domestic pricing setting the market. While imports are arriving that were placed prior to the conflict, very little new business has been placed since it began nearing 2 months ago. Look for a gap in import supply in the second half of 2026 because of the higher freight prices and the lack of competitive offers from foreign mills.
One scrap from the fall in scrap from last month is expected to be followed with a sideways move for May. Scrap flows remain strong, but demand from the mills has picked up as well. The overwhelming prediction is a sideways move for May. If there is an adjustment, it would be minimal at best. Scrap is expected to report late next week, and we will advise.
In the meantime, have a great start to May and a great weekend ahead!
