Year End Rebar Comments
As 2025 draws to a close, it has been another year of “anything but normal” in the rebar market. The year started with lackluster demand in rebar that muted a 3-figure scrap run-up and a proclamation to tighten the Section 232s in the first quarter that had other steel products, non-rebar, increasing wildly. Scrap rose almost $100/ton to start the year, yet announced increases on rebar only totaled $70/ton, and a good share of that failed to “stick.” By April, the rebar pricing was already beginning to retreat and buck the overall steel trend. In June, when Trump doubled steel tariffs to 50%, the rebar market was slow to react. Having felt lagging demand for rebar, a relatively low supply of imports in the pipeline, and ample “new” domestic capacity coming online, buyers gave little concern that the June tariff change would have a meaningful impact on the rebar market. Those assumptions proved wrong in the second half of 2025. Demand gained strength throughout the balance of the year. The lack of import due to tariffs caused immediate stock shortages in several regions, and the new domestic capacity failed to come online as expected, further reducing supply. The rebar market tightened in the second half of 2025, with price increases announced in July and November of $30/ton each. While the market is starting to show signs of normalizing, we are ending the year nearly 20% higher in price than we started and in a much different spot than expected even halfway through this past year… anything but normal!!!
As we start 2026, supply remains very tight, especially on the eastern half of the country. Most will agree that the overall supply has improved in the last 60 days of 2025; however, there remains some tightness in key items and key locations. Expect the new capacities in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Arizona to continue to supply the market with more tons each month moving forward. Their start-ups have had challenges, but all will contribute meaningful tons in the year ahead. In addition, imports have found traction with the higher prices and will help bolster supply beginning in the late 1st quarter. Demand is strong on rebar, with most fabricators more bullish to start 2026 than they were to begin 2025. While the demand is likely not strong enough to trigger another run on supply, it is strong enough to keep pricing in check, assuming no unforeseen future disruption in supply.
On the scrap front to begin the year, many expect a modest bump to start the year, maybe $10-20/ton. Historically, winter brought a surge in pricing on scrap due to difficult collections. However, mills are not running at full capacity right now and can afford to delay their buys and curtail their demand. The $20/ton bump last month may be followed by a similar one for January, but few expect a large run-up into 2026 without any notable external pressures coming into play. The conservative outlook in scrap will likely not push to drive significant price increases moving forward.
On the import front, cargos have been finding traction, but the interest is limited to buyers covering themselves on supply having been cut short in 2025 or buyers protecting themselves from future increases. The current pricing under the high tariffs provides little financial incentive against domestic numbers. Therefore, without a move from domestic mills, expect imports to be available, but volumes will remain limited.
On a final note, we want to wish our customers, service partners, vendors, and employees the safest, happiest, and very best wishes in the coming year! Happy New Year and welcome 2026!!
