As April draws to a close, it is evident now that the rally that began in February has peaked or, at the least, paused for the time being heading into May. Fueled by rising scrap costs and tariff threats, the rebar market saw 2 increases totaling $70/ton pushed through in Q1. Some clarity in the rebar market is beginning to emerge. Scrap is beginning to retreat from its recent highs. Tariffs on rebar have proven to be less impactful to the overall rebar market as they have been on many other steel products. Supply is still tight and here till now… pricing has stabilized, but concerns are developing on the horizon with regards to holding current rebar pricing.
On the scrap front… 3 months of increases to start 2025 totaled $100/ton. Last month scrap retreated $40/ton, and indications of a similar decline for May are beginning to circle. More conservative estimates mid-month of smaller declines have since given way to more aggressive, larger declines in shredded scrap for May. The final should come out next week, but it is likely that a good portion of the increase will have been reversed heading into May. Shredded scrap is showing the least signs of strength in the raw materials as shred supply at dealers is outweighing current mill demand, and there are little to no export opportunities to help relieve. Other grades, such as prime and heavy melt, are still holding firm, with demand for finished goods in those markets holding firm and creating strong demand from the mills in other raw materials products.
Domestic rebar mills remain very tight on inventory in most all regions. While it has improved somewhat throughout April, several mills around the country still have holes in inventory on key items. The tightness in supply is helping to keep pricing in check as inventory in the supply chain is also very low given the time of the season heading into the busiest months. It is likely that the trend will continue through May and serve well to help resist the urge of falling prices…. While the mills are seeing the signs of a softening market, they really are not faced with any panic until they have excess inventory that needs to sell.
On the import front, offers are few and far between, but the pricing does show value compared to current domestic pricing. Threats from the administration related to the shipping industry and Chinese vessels have importers wary of finding ways to transport products purchased overseas. The result is many have chosen to sit on the sidelines for the time being until the picture becomes clearer. This is only helping to tighten the supply picture in the states and keep inventory in check. The few offers that are out there are in line with import pricing that began the year but are currently targeting August and September arrivals. Most prefer to wait and see what the domestic market will do between now and then.
We will continue to update you with details related to the rebar market. Have a great rest of the week and start of May.