Chicago Shredded Scrap posted officially this morning sideways from April at $430/ton. This is in line with expectations to begin the month, as scrap supply is ample, but demand from mills has also picked up. Despite posting sideways, Mills announced rebar price increases previously that the market is digesting. While mills do not necessarily always follow the raw materials dollar for dollar, typically it is raw materials, namely shredded scrap, that are a leading indicator of how rebar pricing will move.
We will continue to monitor events in the market and update accordingly. Have a great week.
A leading domestic mill announced a $30/ton price increase on rebar late Friday for its mills east of the Rockies. On the surface, it would appear this was a follow-up to the increase from 2 weeks ago west of the Rockies. In addition, the announcement increased the spool adder by an additional $20/ton. While the move was unexpected by most, increased rumors had started circulating last week of potential further increases. Typically, all mills follow a move like this within the coming days; however, this increase may fight some headwinds as buyers in the East do have other options, and increased pricing could force their hand. We will continue to keep you posted on developments in the rebar market.
The rebar market shows signs of strength heading into the month of May, following a similar trend to most steel products and the entire steel sector. Pricing in the rebar market has been pressured upward by a $50/ton increase announced out West 2 weeks ago. In addition, the freight market continues to be stubbornly tight due to limited drivers and high fuel prices. Other similar steel product prices are also on the rise, such as merchant and rod prices. These situations are putting pressure throughout the country on rebar pricing. Published rebar price increases were limited to the West because of supply issues for the mills that dominate in that region. East of the Rockies, rebar supply is improved, with added capacity in the market starting to ease supply concerns. In addition, imports affect the eastern side of the country to a greater extent than the west, further aiding the supply situation. Most agree that the market will remain firm through Q2 and possibly beyond with a growing bullish sentiment.
Domestic mills continue to be full and able to fill their rollings. Out West, there have been some production hiccups that have really tightened supply and caused pricing to rebound from earlier year lows with the recent price announcements. Most are reporting longer lead times and supply holes in certain items. Today marks the first day of the increase in effect, so the market eagerly waits to see if and when the full $50/ton is absorbed. In the Eastern half of the country, supply is much improved from several months ago, with both Hybar and Lexington now contributing meaningful tons to the market on a consistent basis along with imports coming in that were placed late last year. Lead times have improved. While the market is far from an oversupply in the east, demand and supply seem to be better balanced currently.
On the import front, the effects of the conflict in Iran continue to hurt global ocean freights and damage import opportunities. The high price of fuel is driving up vessel costs, and foreign mills struggle to compete in the US with domestic pricing setting the market. While imports are arriving that were placed prior to the conflict, very little new business has been placed since it began nearing 2 months ago. Look for a gap in import supply in the second half of 2026 because of the higher freight prices and the lack of competitive offers from foreign mills.
One scrap from the fall in scrap from last month is expected to be followed with a sideways move for May. Scrap flows remain strong, but demand from the mills has picked up as well. The overwhelming prediction is a sideways move for May. If there is an adjustment, it would be minimal at best. Scrap is expected to report late next week, and we will advise.
In the meantime, have a great start to May and a great weekend ahead!
The major mills have announced price increases affecting West Coast rebar supply. Mills are looking to increase rebar pricing out West by $50/ton. It is unique in that it is only for the West Coast, where there have developed recent supply constraints, and the price increase announcement is likely a function of the tight supply. In addition, there is less impact of import supply out West, which only serves to further tighten the market. Demand out west remains lackluster, so the common consensus is the announcement has more to do with supply. The rest of the country faces a better supply picture, so it is uncertain if increases will be announced in the other regions.
In another separate announcement, a major manufacturer announced a $15/ton upcharge on all non-standard length orders. A cut-to-length charge is not that uncommon, and this announcement was likely just to reaffirm the charge as the ramp-up in both border wall construction and data storage construction is expected. Both utilize a large volume of cut-to-length material. Mills are likely looking to ensure they are priced properly for this work ahead.
We will continue to update developments in the market as they occur. Have a great week.
In last week’s hustle, we realized we failed to report the finalized scrap number for April… Please accept our apologies for our delinquency!!!
April Chicago shredded scrap posted down $20/ton from March at $430/ton. The move was expected, as scrap collections had dramatically improved with the weather, and now collections have outpaced demand from the mills. As such, mills were cancelling unshipped March orders and setting newer lower pricing for April. Despite the decline in scrap, across the country, rebar mills are reporting full backlogs and solid shipments of rebar. We do not expect this current scrap decline to have any impact this month on mill rebar pricing, as mills are quick to point out they did not reap the full benefits of the increases on the way up.
We will continue to keep you posted on events that impact the rebar market. Have a great week!
As the second quarter of 2026 begins, the rebar market remains healthy. Demand continues to be strong in the market, with many reporting solid backlogs to start the construction season. The supply picture continues to improve as imports are starting to emerge that were purchased in the fall of last season and additional capacities come online. Pricing remains high relative to history, but the market demand has been solid enough to absorb most of the increase. Buyers are anxiously looking ahead to determine the direction the market will head for the balance of the year in the face of the larger economic and geopolitical landscape the country is facing.
The domestic mills remain “full” to start the second quarter. They successfully navigated the slower Q1 season without having to reduce prices; however, the last $30/ton increase from February continues to face challenges to “stick” fully in many regions. Any concessions the mills may offer are being more than offset by rising logistics costs due to higher fuel prices and a shortage of drivers. Pricing to the end market remains high to start Q2. The spread between finished pricing and raw materials remains at or near an all-time high as a testimony to how solid demand remains for domestic products. Mills eagerly await an expected strong uptick in demand in the construction months ahead to continue to drive prices and maintain strong backlogs. Mill lead times have reduced to a more manageable level to start April.
On the import front, cargos continue to arrive that were booked late last season. They currently provide pricing value compared to the domestic offerings; however, the tons arriving are limited, and future tons are questionable. New activity/bookings on the import market have come to a halt since the escalation in Iran. The increase in fuel prices and the disruption with the shipping lanes have driven average ocean freight rates $40-$60/ton higher globally. That increase is too much for the US market to accept, and foreign mills have no room to lower pricing to help offset it. The result is basically zero concluded new shipments since the conflict began. Until it is resolved and freight rates go lower, do not expect additional relief from import material, which is limiting the perceived availability of the material that is on the water. Expect that import will be a lessening factor on the rebar market if the tensions continue in the Middle East.
On the scrap front, pricing looks to have peaked and is now expected to come off. With the improved overall weather conditions heading into the spring, collections are improving and supply is increasing. Mills are quick to try and push down pricing that was driven up in the winter months. Most expect that there will be gradual decline in scrap and that product demand is too good to merit a collapse. The early prediction for April is a decline of $10-20/ton. It is doubtful that mills will be pressured by such a decline, as they did not follow the increases fully on the way up. Scrap is expected to post final early next week, and we will report it accordingly.
